· The hybrid is a bridge to the electric vehicle

· Automotive industry must pool its strengths to develop the electric car

· In 2009 alone, three billion euros to be invested in R&D

Boxberg/Stuttgart – The issue is a hot topic: Which engine will be powering the cars of the future? The public discussion is being driven by a diversity of interests: those of drivers, of automakers and their suppliers, as well as by politicians, associations, environmental organizations, and countless other groups. But the multitude of opinions and an insufficient understanding of technology seem to have led to unrealistic forecasts. While the electric car will some day become reality, the dominance of the internal-combustion engine will remain unchallenged over the next twenty years. This is because important technological challenges on the road to powertrain electrification must first be overcome. And above all, driving must be made safer. The future of the automobile was the main topic of the 2009 International Automotive Press Briefing. The event was hosted by Bosch, the leading global automotive supplier, in Boxberg in mid-June 2009. More than 200 journalists from 30 countries attended the conference.

Making the vision of the electric car reality
Electromobility will usher in completely new approaches ? with new business models, cars that are free of direct emissions, and significantly improved fuel efficiency. “At Bosch, we are investing heavily in making these visions a reality,” said Dr. Bernd Bohr, chairman of the Bosch Automotive Group, at the start of the event. “We want to bring them about with the help of our innovations, just as in the past, again and again, we have helped to reinvent driving,” he continued.

This means that as a systems supplier, Bosch is contributing its technology in many ways and is working hard to get the electric drive of the future readied for large-scale series production. That is the one thing. The other is that Bosch engineers will do their utmost to further improve the internal-combustion engine for decades to come. “We will do the one thing without neglecting the other,” said Bohr. “Our engineers are working to reduce the fuel consumption of gasoline and diesel engines by up to one third. This will make it possible to reduce the carbon dioxide emissions of diesel cars to under 99 grams per kilometer.” Moreover, Bosch is making driving even safer: “Preventing accidents is just as much a part of our strategic thrust as protecting the environment. To this end, we are developing customized solutions. They are tailored to each individual customer, and to the different markets around the world,” Bohr said.

The broad international presence of Bosch Automotive Technology makes this possible. The business sector counts 168,000 associates, who work at 131 manufacturing and 53 development sites around the world. As a matter of principle, they are located close to Bosch customers and markets. More than 25,000 Automotive Technology associates work in research and development. And this year, some three billion euros are being invested in the sector's R&D activities. “Even in these economically difficult times, we are keeping our R&D investments on a high level, one that puts us at the very top of the automotive industry,” said Bohr. “We are preparing for the future beyond the economic crisis, a future that will be marked by gradually decreasing oil reserves, increasing mobility, and the resulting demands on vehicle safety.”

Bohr's statement highlights the company's long-term orientation – which looks beyond the current 15 to 20 percent decline in global automobile production. The downturn has affected Bosch, just as it has others. In 2008, the Automotive Technology business sector recorded substantial losses, with sales falling by 6.9 percent to around 26.5 billion euros. For 2009, Bohr expects sales to decrease by a further 15 percent.

Developing the electric drive – increasing energy density, decreasing cost
“The electric car will come, but in small numbers at first. It will occupy a niche and will not make a noticeable mark on the roads until after 2020,” said Bohr. Increasing urbanization is one of the reasons why electrification makes sense. By 2015, more than 60 cities worldwide will have populations of over five million. The electric car is perfectly suited to driving in these megacities. It is most likely to be successful in Asia's densely populated regions, and in some European and American cities. “By 2015, we expect to see a sales volume of some 500,000 electric vehicles worldwide. To achieve higher volumes, we must first improve the performance of these vehicles considerably,” Bohr said.

Above all, this means greater energy density for the battery, which acts as the electric vehicle's “tank.” To cover a minimum distance of 200 kilometers, an electric vehicle would currently require a lithium-ion battery weighing some 250 kilograms. At a cost of around 17,000 euros, this battery would not only be too heavy, but also too expensive. For 2015, the estimated cost ranges between 8,000 and 12,000 euros – still too expensive for the mass market. Developers must thus work to reduce the battery's weight and price. To make the battery affordable for the average consumer, major suppliers will spread the considerable investments made in development and manufacturing over the largest possible volumes.

“If we compare two manufacturers with annual respective volumes of 50,000 and 500,000 batteries, the smaller manufacturer has to bear some 500 euros more in development cost per unit,” Bohr explained. Moreover, the economies of scale that can be achieved by large-scale series producers of complex products can significantly reduce relative manufacturing costs as compared to small-scale series producers. To bring the electric car to market quickly, costs must be reduced by a half to two-thirds. And this is why Bohr calls on manufacturers in Europe and the U.S. to avoid fragmenting their resources. Rather, they should take a coordinated approach – much like Japan or China have already done.

Benefiting from the strengths of partners
Bosch thus believes it makes sense for automakers and systems suppliers to work as partners in bringing new technologies about, also for the electric car. To this end, manufacturers are aligning the entire vehicle design with the new drive system. At the same time, suppliers are developing new technologies like the lithium-ion battery for the car, and will provide large volumes of these innovations to automakers at a reasonable cost.

As a systems supplier, Bosch believes it is well-prepared for the electric car. Bosch hybrid technology is set to go into series production at the start of 2010. The supplier's experience with the hybrid drive is the optimum starting point on the road to the electric car. Bosch is working on powertrain electrification in an independent business unit that employs 400 engineers. By the end of this year, that number is set to rise to over 500. The SB LiMotive joint venture with Samsung SDI has also contributed to increasing the company's innovative strength. The cooperation aims to develop the heart of the electric drive of the future: the lithium-ion battery. The new battery technology is set to be ready for series production in 2011.

Combating climate change – also with the internal-combustion engine
However, according to Bohr, “regardless of how much Bosch is doing to develop alternative drive concepts, the internal-combustion engine will remain the dominant technology over the next 20 years.” Further developing gasoline and diesel engines is the fastest way to effectively reduce fuel consumption and CO2 emissions, in line with ever stricter policies around the world to conserve resources and combat climate change. “This will turn a mid-class diesel into an 80 mpg car – with carbon dioxide emissions under 99 grams per kilometer. Thanks to lower fuel consumption, the additional cost of the more complex engines pays off within three years.”

Because of this, Bosch expects the proportion of diesels in worldwide automobile production to increase slightly, from 25 to 28 percent by 2016. While the number of diesels will remain almost stable in Europe, it will grow mainly in Asia's emerging markets and in the U.S. Developments for the gasoline engine will be just as interesting. By 2016, the share of new vehicles equipped with fuel-saving gasoline direct injection systems will triple to 16 percent worldwide. This technology is gaining popularity, especially in western Europe, North America, Japan, and Korea. One reason is that the combination of gasoline direct injection and turbocharging makes smaller, more efficient engines possible, with no loss in performance. “One thing is clear,” said Bohr, “the trend toward the efficient internal-combustion engine is upon us.”

More networking, more safety – ESP® is the platform
Vehicle safety is every bit as important as economical and eco-friendly mobility. By networking existing safety systems and sensor technology, Bosch is developing new functions. ESP®, the electronic stability program that can prevent up to 80 percent of all skid accidents, is the platform. Bosch was the first manufacturer to launch the system in 1995. Today, it is built in to one-third of all new cars worldwide. By 2012, half of all new cars will be equipped with the system.

Policymakers have now acknowledged that ESP® makes cars safer. In Europe, ESP® is set to become mandatory in all vehicle classes by 2014. This regulation goes one step further than its American counterpart, which stipulates that ESP® must be included in vehicles up to 4.5 tons. Regulations in other regions may follow, because the number of fatal accidents varies strongly from region to region. In Europe, the U.S., and Japan, they have declined by a quarter, and in some regions even by a third, since 2000. In contrast, the number of road fatalities in India, for instance, has doubled since 1990. In light of such increases, technologies like ESP® are called for.

“We want to further improve our accident prevention systems,” said Bohr, for instance by combining ESP® with radar and video sensors. This type of networking has enabled Bosch to develop automatic or predictive emergency braking, which is set to go into series production in 2009. According to the estimates of Bosch researchers, this function can prevent three out of four rear-end collisions – a type of accident that is especially prevalent in commercial vehicles. The European Union has responded: from 2015, automatic emergency braking will be mandatory for new commercial vehicles, including trucks, buses, and vans weighing over 3.5 tons. At the same time, Bosch is developing low-price versions of ABS and ESP® for emerging market countries.

This is why Bosch development work focuses equally on technologies for improved road safety and new drive technologies. And the company produces the results of this work all over the world. In 2007, Bosch kicked off production of its antilock braking system in Brazil. And ABS production will begin in India in 2009. In China, the company opened another winter test center for its brake control systems only six months ago. Bosch remains committed to developing innovative products and promoting their widespread use around the world.

Photographs from this year's automotive press briefing will be available at around 6 p.m. CET today.

The Bosch Group is a leading global supplier of technology and services. According to preliminary figures, some 270,000 associates generated sales of roughly 38 billion euros in the areas of automotive and industrial technology, consumer goods, and building technology in fiscal 2009. The Bosch Group comprises Robert Bosch GmbH and its more than 300 subsidiaries and regional companies in over 60 countries. If its sales and service partners are included, then Bosch is represented in roughly 150 countries. This worldwide development, manufacturing, and sales network is the foundation for further growth. Each year, Bosch spends more than 3.5 billion euros for research and development, and applies for over 3,000 patents worldwide. With all its products and services, Bosch enhances the quality of life by providing solutions which are both innovative and beneficial. The company was set up in Stuttgart in 1886 by Robert Bosch (1861-1942) as “Workshop for Precision Mechanics and Electrical Engineering.” The special ownership structure of Robert Bosch GmbH guarantees the entrepreneurial freedom of the Bosch Group, making it possible for the company to plan over the long term and to undertake significant up-front investments in the safeguarding of its future. Ninety-two percent of the share capital of Robert Bosch GmbH is held by Robert Bosch Stiftung GmbH, a charitable foundation. The majority of voting rights are held by Robert Bosch Industrietreuhand KG, an industrial trust. The entrepreneurial ownership functions are carried out by the trust. The remaining shares are held by the Bosch family and by Robert Bosch GmbH. Additional information can be accessed at www.bosch.com.

PI6620 - June 16, 2009